Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 1 1/2 cents lower this morning ahead of the WASDE report. They closed the Monday session with most contracts steady to 2 1/2 cents lower. We are in the middle of the index fund roll period, and preliminary open interest dropped 14,375 contracts on Monday. Not everyone leaving May was ready to go into July! The weekly Export Inspections report for the week that ended on 4/4 totaled 1.035 MMT, down 17.78% from last week and 46.67% below this week last year. As expected, USDA last night reported national corn planting progress at 2% complete, matching with the average for this date. Analysts expect USDA to raise Argentina corn production to 46.44 MMT today, with Brazil at 94.83 MMT in the average estimate. World ending stocks are seen at 311.16 MMT, up from 308.53 MMT in March.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are holding near UNCH after seeing fractional to 1 cent losses in the front months on Monday. Nearby meal futures were up $1.20/ton, with soy oil 27 points lower. USDA reported soybean export inspections of 888,160 MT in the week of April 4. That was more than double the same time last year and 21.4% above the same week in 2018. A total of 385,303 MT was headed to China. A Reuters survey shows estimates for a slight increase to Argentina soybean production at 55.36 MMT, with Brazil seen at 116.19 MMT in the WASDE report. Analysts also expect on average that world carryout will be upped to 108.04 MMT, a bump of 0.87 MMT from the previous projection.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 4 1/2 to 6 1/2 cents lower this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts. MPLS spring wheat is steady to 1 cent lower. Wheat ended the Monday session mixed, as MPLS was down 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cents higher. CBT was down 2 1/2 cents to 1/2 cent higher, with KC steady to up 1 1/2 cents. All wheat export inspections were 538,808 MT for the week that ended on April 8. That was up 18.6% from the week prior and 24.76% larger than the same week in 2018. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS indicated that just 1% of the spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/7, shy of the 5% average. Wet and cold weather this week are expected to delay planting even further with up to 24” of snow predicted in some areas. The winter wheat crop was 3% headed on Sunday, lagging the 4% average. Conditions rose 4% to 60% gd/ex, or 361 on the Brugler500 rating. That is well above this time last year and up 5 points from last week.

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted 22.5 to 90 cent gains in most contracts on Monday, with April down a quarter on First Notice Day (FND). There were no deliveries due to a less than attractive basis. Feeder cattle futures came back to end 35 to 97.5 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 79 cents on April 5 at $143.30. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.74 at $228.67 and Select boxes 60 cents higher @ $220.88. USDA estimated Monday’s cattle slaughter at 120,000 head. That would be 5,000 above last week and 2,000 head more than the same week a year ago.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $1.55 losses in the front months on Monday, with a few deferred contracts higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 27 cents from the previous day @ $78.53 on April 4. April futures will expire this Friday. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.45 higher at $83.29 per cwt. The national base hog carcass value was down 38 cents in the afternoon report, at an average weighted price of $75.40. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 475,000 head for Monday, down 1,000 from the previous week but 24,000 above last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are currently 22 to 51 points higher. They were 30 to 67 points higher in most contracts on Monday, helped by a weaker US dollar. The dollar is weaker again this morning. Crude oil futures were the highest since November 1 on Monday, supporting cotton via more expensive synthetics. NASS reported that US cotton was 6% planted as of Sunday in their Crop Progress report. That is 1% above the average pace but 1% behind the same week last year. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 at 86.90 on April 5. The new USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.22 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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