Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading steady to 1 cent per bushel lower after since settling with fractional to 2 1/4 cent gains on Wednesday. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production in the week of April 5 rose 3,000 barrels per day to 1.002 million bpd. Stocks in that week saw the largest weekly draw down since October, dropping 799,000 barrels to 23.193 million barrels. Analysts are estimating USDA to show old crop export sales of 0.6-0.9 MMT for the week that ended on 4/4, with new crop at 50,000-200,000 MT. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates the Argentine corn crop at 48 MMT, up 0.7 from their previous number and compared to USDA’s 47 MMT

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are mostly 1 1/4 cent per bushel lower ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. They saw 2 to 3 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Nearby meal futures were up $1/ton, with soy oil 3 points higher. The weekly Export Sales report is expected to show 0.8-1.15MMT in old crop soybean sales today, with new crop at 0-100,000 MT. USDA did revise 17/18 Brazil production to 122 MMT on Tuesday, up 1.2 from the March report, with 18/19 @ 117 MMT. AgRural now estimates the Brazilian soybean 18/19 crop at 114.6 MMT, up 1.7 from their previous number, with updated CONAB estimates due today. Argentina’s soybean crop is seen at 56 MMT by the Rosario Grain Exchange, 2 MMT higher than their prior estimate. USDA is at 55 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are trading 5 to 7 cents per bushel higher in the MPLS spring wheat futures this morning with heavy snow accumulations pushing planting back into May. The Chicago and KC contracts are 1 to 2 1/2 cents higher. They were down 1 to 2 1/2 cents in the nearby winter wheat contracts yesterday. Preliminary open interest continues to rise, up 5, 378 contracts on Wednesday. Heavy snow fall expected in HRS country this week supported the MPLS market on Wednesday, up 5 to 7 1/4 cents. The range of estimates ahead of this morning's USDA Export Sales report is 300,000-500,000 MT of old crop wheat bookings and 100,000-200,000 MT for new crop in the week that ended April 4. Japan tendered Thursday for 113,124 MT of wheat from US, Canada, and Australia, with 55,709 MT sought from the US. The Philippines is also tendering for 165,000 MT of international wheat.

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 40 to 75 cents lower, with April down a tick. Feeder cattle futures were 30 to 97.5 cents in negative territory. The CME feeder cattle index was up 13 cents on April 9 at $143.63. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 73 cents at $229.05, with Select boxes 82 cents higher at $219.62. USDA estimated week to date cattle slaughter at 360,000 head through Wednesday. That would be 4,000 above last week and 2,000 head more than the same week a year ago. A total of 416 head were sold of the 510 offered in the weekly FCE auction, averaging $124. The one lot that went unsold was offered at $125, with no bids. Outside of the FCE a few cash cattle sales of $124 were reported in TX and KS.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 52.5 cent to $2.65 gains in most 2019 contracts on Wednesday, with nearby April up 37.5 cents ahead of Friday’s expiration. There was significant net new buying interest in the October futures, with preliminary open interest up 2934 contracts in that month on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 21 cents from the previous day @ $78.89 on April 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 83 cents higher at $83.94 per cwt in the afternoon report. The rib and loin primals were both reported lower. The national base hog carcass value was up 47 cents in the afternoon report, at an average weighted price of $75.68. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.426 million head through Wednesday, down 3,000 from the previous week but 62,000 above last year. ASF has now spread to South Africa, according to the country’s ag ministry. The National Pork Producers Council has cancelled their planned June World Pork Expo in Des Moines, eliminating a potential entry point for ASF into the US.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 2 to 23 points higher this morning, with bulls hoping for another strong weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 AM CDT. They were steady to 47 points lower in the front months on Wednesday, with new crop contracts slightly higher. The Cotlook A Index was up 55 points at 88.35 on April 9. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.22 cents/lb through Thursday. On Tuesday, USDA hiked expected Chinese imports by 500,000 bales, while Turkish imports were trimmed by 200,000 bales. Indian exports were cut by 300,000 bales, with Australia up 200,000 bales.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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