Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower this morning. They settled 6 to 7 cents lower in the 2019 contracts on Tuesday. Some of the late 2020 contracts were down a penny or less. Warmer weather expected in the coming week was seen as aiding crop maturity. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA update, analysts are looking for old crop corn ending stocks to rise slightly to 2.204 bbu according to a Bloomberg survey. New crop is expected on average to be trimmed by 12 mbu to 1.663 bbu but the range of ideas out there is huge. A Ukrainian weather forecaster pegs the country’s corn crop at 36 MMT (vs. 33 MMT from USDA), noting favorable weather conditions.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are fractionally higher this morning after since rallying 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents on Tuesday. Nearby July soybean meal was up $3.70/ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. USDA will release their monthly WASDE report this Thursday, with the average trade estimate for 18/19 soybean carryout seen at 1.056 bbu a 14 mbu drop from June. New crop ending stocks are seen dropping 215 mbu to 830 mbu on lower production, as WAOB takes into account the low acreage number from the June 28 NASS report.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly UNCH to 1 1/2 cents lower this morning. Minneapolis September is in the black by a fraction. They were 1 1/2 to 8 1/4 cents lower on Tuesday, with KC HRW holding up the best. Harvest progress in KS was 61% complete, with OK (95%) and TX (92%) nearing completion. Prior to the release of the WASDE on Thursday traders are expecting USDA to cut 34 mbu from the 19/20 US wheat carryout estimate to 1.038 bbu. Old crop stocks will also be trimmed to match the June 28 number. HRW production estimates are above last month. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Ukrainian (60,000 MT) and Romanian (180,000 MT) wheat for mid-August Delivery in Tuesday’s tender. The US origin is too expensive to be offered.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up $1.05 to $1.97 on Tuesday. Nearby August is at a discount to last week’s cash, but doesn’t need to converge for a while. Feeder cattle futures got help from both the higher fats and losses in corn, with FC contracts $2.65 to $4.37 to the plus side. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.07 @ $135.44 on July 8. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply lower on Tuesday. Choice boxes were down $2.73 at $214.73 with Select boxes $2.32 lower @ $192.09. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 241,000 head. That was 2000 below last week and 3,000 head above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures post limit gains in the August through December contracts. Nearby July has to stick close to cash ahead of expiration and was up $1.30. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 90 cents from the previous day @ $71.92 on July 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up a sharp $3.70 in the morning and still up $1.89 in the PM report at $73.77. The hams and bellies were up the most. The national average base hog price was up 21 cents on Tuesday at $66.08. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 957,000 head. That was up 26,000 head from last Tuesday and 57,000 head larger than same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 23 to 61 points higher in a dead cat bounce after posting new life of contract lows on Tuesday. They were down 162 to 240 points on Tuesday. NASS showed 47% of the US cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday (54% avg), with 13% setting bolls (16% avg). In TX, the crop was 37% squared, with 1% setting bolls (13% avg). Condition ratings improved 2% to 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index showing ratings up 4 points to 340. By state, TX saw a 7 point jump to 325, with VA (+9) and LA (+8) also seeing notable improvements. The Cotlook A index for July 8 was down 50 points from the previous day at 77.85 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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