Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing sharp 10 to 17 1/4 cent losses again on Tuesday, following Monday’s limit lower move. Expanded limits of 40 cents per bushel are in effect today. Monday’s WASDE report showed reduced estimated corn FSI (from ethanol) use by 25 mbu in both 18/19 and 19/20. That, along with a 100 mbu reduction for 19/20 exports, contributed to an increase in both old and new ending stock estimates. USDA also trimmed the 19/20 average farm price by a dime to $3.60. Monday afternoon’s crop ratings from NASS were unch at 57% gd/ex and 351 on the Brugler500 index. By state, IL was down 2 points, with IN 10 lower and IA down 3. Ratings in NE (+7), MO (+4), and SD (+1) were all reported higher. A total of 130,000 MT of optional origin corn was purchased by two South Korean importers on Tuesday.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.68, down 17 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.77 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.90 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.98 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 9 to 10 1/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. August soybean meal is up $5.30/ton, with soy oil UNCH. The monthly WASDE balance sheet update saw a 20 mbu reduction to the soybean crush estimate for old crop. Besides the smaller production, new crop saw a 100 mbu drop to projected exports at 1.775 bbu, as carryout was still down 40 mbu. On the world side, WAOB cut 2 MMT from China’s projected imports to 83 MMT for 18/19 and 875 MMT for 19/20. Condition ratings were unch on the gd/ex score at 54%, as the Brugler500 was down 1 to 346. State by state, conditions in IL (-2), MN(-3), IA (-4), and IN (-6) were all lower. Of the major states, NE (+1) and OH (+5) were higher.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.77, up 10 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.89 1/4, up 10 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.02 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $297.20, up $5.30,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.64, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are down 3 to 7 1/2 cents in the KC and MPLS contracts at midday, with CBT firm to 2 1/4 cents higher. On Monday, USDA added 25 mbu to the new crop export projection at 975 mbu, as well as a 20 mbu increase to feed and residual. Those were not enough to offset the jump in production as ending stocks were up 14 mbu. USDA also cut the average farm price by 20 cents to $5.00. The WAOB also cut projected Russian production another 1.2 MMT from July to 73 MMT. Following Monday’s closing bell, weekly Crop Progress data showed the US winter wheat harvest at 89% complete (96% avg), with spring wheat just 8% harvested (30% avg). Spring wheat conditions slipped 3% to 69% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 down 6 to 372. The Dakota both saw a drop of 7 points.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.72 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $3.84 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.05 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are posting another round of limit losses, this time to the expanded $4.50 limits in the front months. Feeder cattle futures are down $3.375 to $5.60 on Tuesday. The fire at a Garden City Tyson plant is still pressuring the futures market lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 56 cents on August 9 at $141.10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up $5.45 at $224.07, with Select boxes higher $2.43 @ $200.22. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 115,000 head, down 4,000 head from the previous week and 2,000 head below the same week last year. Cash action has yet to be reported this week but is expected to be lower due to the lower kill capacity. Wednesday’s FCE auction is showing 462 head for sale.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $100.550, down $4.500,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $99.250, down $4.500,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $103.950, down $4.500,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $129.675, down $4.725

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $128.350, down $5.600

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $129.125, down $4.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are mixed on Tuesday, with soon to expire Aug down 30 cents. Hogs are seeing some pressure from the cattle complex. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 58 cents at $81.75. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 64 cents on Tuesday morning at $89.55. The national average base hog value was down another 53 cents in the Tuesday AM report at $68.22. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday is 466,000 head, up 39,000 head from the previous week and 1,000 head below the same week a year ago.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $78.875, down $0.300,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $65.425, down $1.650

DEC 19 Hogs are at $63.825, up $0.050

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 64 to 127 points higher at midday. Monday’s monthly update to the US cotton balance sheets showed a 280,000 bale reduction to 18/19 exports at 14.22 million bales. New crop projections show a 200,000 bale jump to new crop shipments at 17.2 million bales. USDA also dropped the average farm price projection by 3 cents to 60 cents/lb. NASS Crop Progress data showed 77% of the crop setting bolls (76% avg), with 20% of the crop with bolls opening (10% avg). Condition ratings were up 2% to 56% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 5 to 354. By state, TX was up 11 points, with GA down the same. The Cotlook A was down 65 points on August 12 at 70.35 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.3, up 127 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 59.14, up 100 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 59.75, up 85 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.79, up 64 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.